Republican Apocalypse?

 

The Uphill Battle

The election is over and many extraordinary things have happened. One of them is that I amazed Nurse Amy (and myself) by correctly calling the presidential results for all 50 states plus D.C. (that is, if Obama wins Florida.  I actually hope I’m wrong about Florida, as it makes me feel vaguely uneasy to be 100% clairvoyant about this stuff).  My prognosticating an Obama win was actually against my personal preference, but too many factors were out there that made it clear to me that Mitt Romney had an uphill battle.

Now that I have “street cred” regarding my incredible ability to tell the future (just ask Nurse Amy), here’s another forecast that many of you will not like:  A conservative Republican candidate will have little or no chance of winning a national election for the foreseeable future.

Why Can’t Republicans Win Elections?

A number of perfectly acceptable, and some clearly superior, Republican candidates failed to win election this time.  Mitt Romney seemed genuinely likeable to me. Scott Brown of Massachusetts is intelligent, articulate, good-looking and as moderate as a Republican can get; in other words, a perfect fit for his state except there wasn’t a (D) after his name.  Despite this, he lost to a college professor who claimed, some say falsely, to be a Native-American and has little desire to work in a bipartisan manner.  Conservative ex-military African American Allen West was targeted and lost because of his outspoken nature, otherwise a laudable characteristic in a politician.  Michelle Bachmann, a strong woman but a Tea Party favorite, barely won re-election despite spending a lot more money in her campaign than her opponent.

But let’s talk national elections:  It is my opinion that more people are “liberal” than claim to be so in opinion polls.  Conservatives have attached a stigma to that word that, I suspect, has led many liberals to call themselves moderates when asked.  Conservatives tend to be prouder of their affiliation than liberals, so much so that those on the left now refer to themselves as “progressives”.  So we must now assume that many moderates are actually progressives and will lean Democratic.

Women’s Issues and Conservatives

Of course, few people are 100% in line with the entire platform of either major political party.  I, for example, am a fiscal conservative and dislike big government, yet like my National Parks untouched by all but the most necessary oil pipelines.  As an obstetrician (not an abortionist) in a previous life, I have respect for the right of a woman to make her own choices; yet, I have seen the beating heart and limb movements of a 3 month fetus on sonogram and it never fails to move me.

These are very complex issues, and many feel very deeply about them; in the eyes of many women (especially the unmarried), the above issue means war and is enough reason to not support a candidate.  Unmarried adult women, by the way, is a demographic that is rising, and this bodes poorly for Republicans.  Some foolish comments about rape by 2 separate Republican candidates ruined their party’s chances in the senate.  Yet, the Republican party is between a rock and a hard place: they have precious few groups that support them in mass, and Evangelicals will not tolerate any change in the current platform.   If the Evangelical Christians drop their support, what then for the GOP?

Our nation is changing in its demographic makeup, as well.  Republicans do well enough among older voters, Evangelical Christians, and white men, but poorly among African-Americans (even before Obama), Latinos , Jews, Union workers, Gays, and young people.  These groups often vote in blocs; when I say that, I mean a majority can be depended on to vote Democratic, not 100%).  This can be due to tradition, past policies, the perception that Republicans are all rich fat cats or a number of other factors.  Latinos, especially, comprise more and more voters every election cycle.  If the Republicans do not take Latino issues seriously, the shrinking percentage of white male voters will be overwhelmed by sheer numbers.  In reality, that is what happened this election.

Also, don’t think that Marco Rubio, Cuban-American senator from Florida and rising Republican star, will magically make Latinos Republican.  Most Latinos in this country are Mexican-Americans; there are many others who have made America their home, such as Colombian-Americans, Puerto-Ricans, and Venezuelans.  It is a mistake to assume that all Latinos are the same, and that a Mexican-American will necessarily feel a special connection to a Cuban-American.  Clearly, not all African-Americans felt that connection to Allen West.

Now that Barack Obama has been re-elected, some measure of “Obamacare” will likely go into effect before the next election cycle.  This means more entitlements; once a person has received an entitlement, they will never vote for someone who wants to reduce it or take it away.  Truly, this may be the biggest reason that Republicans’ chances nationally will continue to dwindle.

So, what can the Republicans do to change their falling fortunes?  Become cooler?  Be more aggressive? Smile more? The mainstream press will make short work of a Republican candidate that tries to do so. My guess is: Probably something major, but it beats the heck out of me.  I may be clairvoyant, but I’m not a miracle worker.  Perhaps you, dear reader, can post a solution in the comments section below…

Dr. Bones

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21 Responses to “Republican Apocalypse?”

  1. Robert Dudley says:

    I too believe the same about the abortion issue, yet do not feel that it is my choice to choose for another , nor the governments. If they had chosen Ron Paul , he would have been my choice. Of all the qualified people the GOP picked the wrong man, way too much baggage.

  2. Tami Greene says:

    I’m anxious to see what the Republican party does too! We are a nation that is split right down the middle. When citizens lose their morals and allow their vote to be bought instead of voting on principle, then those with the loftiest promises will win (whether or not they can produce). And it seems like the Democratic party can make bigger promises that appeal to the increasingly looser morals of society (and promote the ‘easy life,’ not doing the hard-but-right thing). Standing for values and principles is so passe’.

  3. Matthew says:

    I don’t see the Republican party thriving in the future. As you have accurately pointed out the party’s unwillingness to come to terms with reality as it is and its insistence instead of holding on to an idealized version of a past reality is a recipe for extinction. The rule of survival is wake up and adapt to the situation that exists or fail to and perish. Ask the Whigs.

  4. TheJoker says:

    Frankly what lies before this country for the near term is a reenactment of Ayn Rands book “Atlas Shrugged” as the takers feel entitled to what the makers have. The country needed financial reform it will not get and economic collapse will be the consequence. Some of us are aware and have taken steps to survive, but those who will howl the loudest for help when the system fails are the ones who voted for Obama.

  5. XCR says:

    I agree with TheJoker .. I posted at 11:30 last night that the companies that employ millions will simply start to close their doors and then owners will never be heard from again… Atlas … I was just telling a friend that “we” the few that still believe in our conservative (Tea Party) values need to get our own state, shove out everyone who disagrees and put a fence up around us. Secede from the Union. We may be a dying breed as others have suggested (Matthew), but at least we would have each other. I have little to no hope for the future of the US. I believe if the House stands in The Anointed One’s way, he’ll simply abolish the House (and Senate?) and will throw out the rest of the Constitution and will name himself dictator. I honestly believe he is the anti-Christ and maybe our only hope now lies in God’s hands. This may well have signaled the coming apocalypse. Lawlessness, pot smoking, children out of wedlock, unmarried mothers, free birth control, free cell phones, free houses, and how much more debt in the next 4 years? Another 6 TRILLION? I love Romney, but I don’t believe he fought hard enough. He had to run a smeer campaign, and he didn’t. Would he have won then? I don’t know .. probably not. Obummer is an awfully good liar .. if you don’t hear from me again I may be in jail for speaking out against the savior. Today I’m mourning the loss of my country – I’m even dressed in all black today. Tomorrow .. I’ll have to put my feet on the ground and come up with a new plan. I know I’ll be taking my prepping activities much more seriously now. Good luck everyone. We’re going to need it.

  6. Michelle says:

    I appreciate the article and words. I personally spent the day quite untalkitive. I have never taken an election quite so serious. I know I should remember that God is in control, yet I just can’t shake this feeling of a cataclysmic loss on the part of the American people. I try very hard to stay balanced and positive while planning for different things, but I can’t help but feel terribly defeated. It’s as though the American people are in a daze. It’s as if they are hopeful and expectant with their rose colored glasses on. I pray they get the good things they are wishing for, I really do. I pray the things I have clearly felt are coming are simply an over active imagination. I pray that my eyes now be focused forever upward, and that my peace is not shaken or taken. I can’t help but feel a bit somber. Perhaps this will pass. I certainly hope so. Until then I will enjoy reading your book I just purchased and continue on this journey. Preparing for the worst but hoping for the best…
    May God Bless Us All…

    • Ron Smith says:

      Interestingly enough many people felt the same way when most of the people moaning about doom today all voted for George W Bush in 2000 which was a true calamity and cataclysmic event. These same voters felt so good about calamity they went out and did it again in 2004. Sean Hannity worked tirelessly to make everyone of his programmed followers believe that Obama being re-elected would cause the planet to explode and the sky would fall.

      We all woke up this morning and the planet was still here. Nearly 40 million Americans are living in significant poverty and another 40 million are underemployed and stuck in horrible dead end jobs. 15 million children go to bed hungry at least one night every week and yes this is IN AMERICA. You would have us believe that Paul Ryans “austerity measures” would have addressed this in a Christian compassionate way? How in the world could reneging on Social Security for people “under 55″ who have paid into Social Security for 40 years be OK with ANY of you? Have you lost your minds or just your morals?

      • Dr. Bones says:

        Yes, Ron, the world will go on, but the article asks, “can the Republican party ever again win a national election”?

        • Michelle says:

          The fact that Ron Paul wasn’t even given the same chance says a lot about the system. The system doesn’t want change. I’m not sure what they want. I know that our founding fathers would be appalled though…

      • Michelle says:

        I don’t believe I mentioned anything about austerity, social security or poverty. And no, I haven’t lost my mind…

  7. Ron Smith says:

    Ron Paul would have won the election. Until the Republicans figure out how they failed to choose the winning candidate I agree they have NO chance of gaining the White House or holding on to any majorities going forward. They should enjoy the House while they still have it because that is a rare and special and unlikely future opportunity to work with the other side (instead of stonewalling progress some more while they grin and kill Americas triple-A credit rating)

  8. Trace Adams says:

    I have no insights into the Republican party’s possible/likely demise or otherwise. But I appreciate the article Dr. Bones, it made me think and wonder.

  9. While I like the Republican push for fiscal responsibility and smaller government, I find it hippocritical how they are selective in which liberties to support. If they took a stance that supported true freedom in which people could do what they wanted, regardless of moral perspective, as long as they don’t impede or imfringe upon others to do the same, then I think they would improve their chances for the popular vote. We don’t all have to have identical belief systems to get along, in my opinion. For the record, I don’t align myself with any politcal party but I do support common sense and true freedom.

  10. Six says:

    I’m going to take a contrarian position. The GOP needs to go more conservative. Look at the numbers. 10 million fewer voters for the Dems and 3 million fewer for the Reps (pending the final count). The Dems had a much more effective GOTV campaign than the Elephant party but both still fell short of their hopes or many of our expectations. Why?

    For the right it all came down to the candidate. A squishy east coast moderate. He ran as a big C conservative but his record was well known and assuredly not forgotten by the party faithful. They decided to let it burn and stayed away in critical numbers. I saw a lot of the hard core Libertarians swear they would never vote for Romney and they apparently didn’t. Some said Mitt would only put off the inevitable and it was best to get things over and done with. Appearances are just as important for the Republicans as it is for the Democrats.

    For the left I think there are actually fewer hard core liberals out there than the democratic party wants to admit. They worked very hard, ran a fantastic GOTV campaign and still fell far short of their 2008 numbers.

    As for the Latino (there’s that word again) vote I’ve seen studies that indicate they’re conservative on their views of many pressing issues. Including illegal immigration. And they’re working their way up the class ladder by generation. As they do their politics will mutate as well. In a very few years they may well dominate the conservative agenda.

    I am in no way saying I see roses on the horizon. far from it. The fiscal cliff is all too real and now that Obama has a freer hand erosions of both the First and Second Amendments are certainly in the offing. I am as angry and pessimistic as I have ever been. But. These things tend to by cyclical and Obama is the lefts worst enemy when it comes to alienating large swaths of America. If we can hold on we’ll have a chance to reverse any damage he does. Aye, there’s the rub. Can we hold on?

    For that I have no answer. But consider this country’s history. We have weathered threats to our lives and freedoms many, many times. Including from each other. If any people can do it it’s us.

  11. […] Doom and Bloom discusses entitlements, among other things, and how they effect voters. […]

  12. The best thing that can happen to the Republican party is to get rid of the evangelicals, and the talking heads like Rush, Hannity, Coulter, et al who preach the political doctrine of no compromise. In other words, the Republican party needs to become tolerant.

    Yes, I am a liberal. Further, the louder the right wing of the Republic gets with it’s presumed mandate from god and the founding fathers, the further to the left I go. The less willing they become to compromise with the Democratic party, the further left I go. Let’s face it folks, the pendants at places like Fox News have split our nation into the Reds and the Blues. Party has become more important than country.

    How about we go back to James Madison’s idea of abolishing all political parties. How about we become Americans instead of Conservatives or Liberals?

  13. Single women have gov’t as a husband to provide for them. They are the largest group of welfare moochers.

  14. RedcrossReborn says:

    I think the Republican party would benefit from a push to move “hot button” issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage to the state-level. By taking that stance they will both support the idea of smaller government (by stating that it isn’t the federal government’s job to decide those issues) while also taking away two of the Democratic parties key weapons. Without the ability to crucifx Republicans on these two key issues there are many one-issue voters who will have to pause for the first time and consider if the Democatic party offers them anything outside of those issues.
    At least, that’s my two cents.

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